Ecobank Ghana’s Credit Recovery Gains Momentum, but New Risks Emerge Beneath the Surface

Ecobank’s NPL ratio fell to 14.44% in June 2026, from 24.86% a year earlier, while capital adequacy stood at 18.83%. Total assets increased 31.4% year-on-year to GH¢56.11 billion, although net loans grew by a more measured 4.3% to GH¢13.72 billion. The loan-to-deposit ratio also declined to 36.3%, providing meaningful liquidity headroom.

The improvement is significant, but the pace of recovery warrants closer monitoring. Ecobank is targeting an NPL ratio below 10% by December 2026, requiring another 444-basis-point improvement in roughly six months. The interim disclosure does not fully show how much of the reduction reflects recoveries, write-offs or restructurings.

A second signal is emerging from the growth environment. Ghana’s private-sector credit expanded by 41.2% year-on-year in June, while Ecobank’s loan book grew more cautiously. At the same time, the bank is operating in a lower-rate environment, with net interest margin pressure already identified at Group level, particularly in Ghana.

TRT therefore sees the immediate issue not as financial distress, but as a forward-looking risk-visibility challenge: whether future credit expansion, particularly toward priority sectors such as SMEs and agriculture, can maintain asset quality while protecting margins.

The priority indicators for the next 30–90 days are monthly NPL movements, H2 loan origination by sector and vintage, provisioning trends, net interest margin and early payment stress.

“Ecobank’s current credit position is stronger. The emerging risk lies in ensuring that the speed of future credit decisions does not outpace the speed of risk visibility.”
TRT Intelligence Institute™ — Threat • Risk • Trust Intelligence
Lead Analyst: Messan Mawugbe, PhD
Managing Director, TRT Intelligence Institute™

Based on TRT Intelligence Institute™’s Q1–Q2 2026 Latent Credit Risk Assessment of Ecobank Ghana. Analytical judgements are intelligence assessments and should not be interpreted as forecasts, allegations or credit ratings.